US midterms are on Tuesday. The result might affect Milei
Markets expect Democrats to make gains in Congress, weakening the Trump administration’s grip on power. Analysts explain how the outcome could affect Argentine bonds, stocks and the dollar La entrada US midterms are on Tuesday. The result might affect Milei se publicó primero en Buenos Aires Herald .
Argentina's President Javier Milei is closely monitoring the upcoming US midterm elections on November 3, as they could influence his foreign policy alignment with the United States. These elections will determine the composition of the US House of Representatives and Senate, as well as hold gubernatorial contests in 36 states. The midterms are seen as a referendum on the MAGA administration, which has faced challenges due to its tariff war and the Middle East conflict.
Analysts anticipate a potential loss of majority for incumbent President Donald Trump in the House of Representatives. However, experts believe the impact on Argentina's financial markets would be limited, unlike the scenario following Brazil's election victory for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Historically, incumbent parties tend to lose ground during midterm elections, and markets are already pricing in a Republican loss of control of the House.
A Prisma report projects a 60.7% chance of Democrats gaining control of the Senate, with a median projection of 52 seats. Currently, the Senate is 53-47 in favor of Republicans, and Democrats need to win four seats to take control. Financial markets economist Gustavo Ber expects Democrats to win both the House and Senate, although the latter scenario would be closer.
A Democratic majority in both chambers could strengthen the opposition's influence over key US political issues. If the opposition gains control, it could take a tougher stance on spending by the Trump administration and have greater influence over the US Supreme Court. Meanwhile, Argentina's stock market is currently influenced more by regional trends and domestic factors, rather than the US presidential election outcome.
The Central Bank is not expected to face significant pressure on the official exchange rate due to the anticipated Republican loss in the House of Representatives. Additionally, US Treasury financial support for Argentina is already accounted for in the market, as Milei has become a key geopolitical ally for Latin America.
Written by urgent.news from Buenos Aires Herald's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
