The flaw in Australia’s ‘China threat’ thesis

Australian economist John Edwards contends that Australia's preparations for a potential conflict with China are "relatively superficial" given that other countries in the region, such as Europe, Canada, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India, are not adopting a similar stance. In his Lowy Institute paper and newspaper interview, Edwards suggests that the US-China rivalry could actually benefit Australia, as it sits between a security partner in Washington and a major economic partner in Beijing.

This position could potentially support Australian prosperity for the next 25 years, provided Australia does not take sides in the ongoing rivalry.

According to Edwards, US-China competition serves as a boon for Australia, as it pits two superpowers against each other, which is better than having one dominant power. Both China and the United States are expected to remain the largest economies in 25 years, and neither will be able to outcompete the other. Smaller nations can benefit from having two large partners, and Australia should not "meekly accept" Chinese economic sanctions or go out of its way to provoke Beijing.

Edwards criticizes Australia's approach of prioritizing national security over economic statecraft and argues that the country should be more open to foreign investment. He shares his former Prime Minister Paul Keating's preference for a foreign policy that is not dominated by the United States. Critics, such as Keating, argue that the Aukus security pact ties Australia's defense capabilities and technology closely to the US, potentially leaving the Australian Defence Force with little independence in operational decision-making.

Independent commentators have also expressed concerns about think tanks like the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, which receives funding from both the Australian government and foreign defense contractors, including US entities. These organizations often promote a security narrative aligned with Washington's priorities, particularly concerning China.

Former Foreign Minister Bob Carr, in a 2023 online interview, stated that Taiwan should not be a cause for war for Australia. He believes that if the worst outcome for Taiwan is similar to the current situation in Hong Kong, it should not be considered a reason for war. Carr supports the one-China policy, acknowledging that it has maintained regional peace and Taiwan's autonomy under the 1972 diplomatic framework.

However, he emphasizes that the national security law in Hong Kong should be lifted, while accepting Taiwan's current state of autonomy.