Smuggling, power, profit: Irregular migration out of eastern Libya

In the past year, an estimated 19,800 individuals have undertaken the dangerous journey from eastern Libya to the Greek island of Crete via the Mediterranean Sea. The route, which links Libya's eastern coast to Greece, has emerged as a key pathway for unauthorized migration into Europe, according to Greek newspaper Kathimerini. On October 20 alone, Greek authorities recorded 710 individuals on 14 boats; numbers rose to even higher levels the following day.

Migrants typically pay up to $4,000 (€3,600) for the voyage, which lasts approximately 1.5 days. This particular route is becoming more popular as a result of crackdowns on other passages. Following eastern Libyan military forces' actions against people smugglers heading towards Italy in 2023, smuggling networks shifted to smaller boats and redirected their efforts towards Crete.

The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime reports that other entities have also entered the people smuggling business, including those previously involved in trafficking goods, vehicles, or drugs. In the context of Libya's ongoing conflict and instability, smuggling activities have thrived, further fueling the growth of the conflict economy.

Researchers at Chatham House highlight the interplay between armed actors, local power brokers, and smuggling networks, emphasizing the economic and political gains to be had. Hager Ali, a researcher at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies, notes that an entire industry has developed around smuggling routes, whether involving weapons, goods, people, or drugs.

The presence of established contacts, transportation, and security arrangements can facilitate illicit activities such as human trafficking. Since 2014, Libya has been divided into two entities: a UN-backed administration in Tripoli and an eastern government led by former warlord Khalifa Haftar. While there are no direct links between Haftar's networks and people smugglers, controlling and preventing departures from the eastern coast can confer political influence.

The recent maritime agreement between the Tobruk government and Turkey, which Turkey had previously signed with Libya's Tripoli-based government, demonstrates geopolitical competition in the region. While no direct link exists between this agreement and the surge in irregular migrants in Crete, Ali suggests that migrants could potentially be used as leverage in geopolitical conflicts.

The European Union's cooperation with Libyans to curb irregular migration, despite the actors' ties to armed groups and disputed legitimacy, raises questions about the balance between control and strategic importance.