Oil prices set for sharp monthly rise on Hormuz strikes and US threat to hit Iran

Oil prices surged by over 2% on Friday, signaling the start of a fourth consecutive monthly increase, following a tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz and the United States' threat of renewed hostilities in Iran. The benchmark Brent, which accounts for two-thirds of the world's crude, rose by 2.37% to $117.56 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge tracking U.S. crude, also jumped by 2.13% to $104.17 a barrel.

Weekly, Brent is expected to climb by 0.64% and WTI by nearly 1%, with monthly spikes of around 15% and 12% for the two benchmarks. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran disclosed on Friday that an oil tanker had struck a naval mine while attempting an unauthorized route through the Hormuz Strait. This followed another tanker hit on Thursday night by explosives attached to its hull by a small boat, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism about the end of the ongoing war with Iran, which has been in its ninth month, although he did not elaborate on the specifics. This statement came before the crucial U.S. midterm elections on November 3, causing investors to brace for possible attacks soon. On Friday, Qatari mediators returned to Tehran to continue efforts towards a deal between the U.S. and Iran.

An Iranian official expressed openness to any efforts aimed at negotiations, talks, or collective consultation. Fear of U.S. strikes on Iran kept upward pressure on crude, maintaining supply risk premiums despite earlier diplomatic outreach efforts, according to Ryan McDaniel, president of Duncan Oil Company.