National Bank revises 2026 real GDP forecast downward
According to the National Bank’s updated forecast, Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) will contract by 0.4% in 2026.
National Bank Governor Andriy Pyshnyy announced a downward revision of the bank's 2026 real GDP forecast during a briefing, according to Ukrinform. The decline in real GDP in the July–September quarter, attributed to the severing of sea routes and Russian assaults on production sites and logistics, led to the downward adjustment.
Metallurgy and ore-mining sectors bore the brunt of the losses, while other industries, trade, and agriculture also experienced a downturn. Pyshnyy explained that the National Bank has revised its 2026 real-GDP forecast to -0.4%, primarily due to the significant negative impact of intensified Russian attacks, estimated at 1.9 percentage points.
The bank anticipates a gradual recovery in economic growth for 2027–2028, driven by public and private investments in the defense industry, the localization of arms production financed through the Ukraine Support Loan, and initiatives to restore crucial infrastructure. Should the National Bank's technical assumption of improved logistics by mid-2027 become reality, real GDP could expand by 0.4% in the following year.
As security concerns lessen, economic growth is projected to accelerate to 2.2% in 2028. Notably, the Ministry of Economy is also revising its 2026 GDP growth forecast downward. In the second quarter of 2026, real GDP expanded by 0.4% year-on-year and 0.3% compared to the previous quarter, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations.
Written by urgent.news from Ukrinform - Economy's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
