Napkin Math: Too Early Projections for the 2027 Mariners
Mariners offseason begins at crossroads
In a post-2026 recap, the Seattle Mariners found themselves in a precarious position. The team's overall performance in 2026, measured by Fielding Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), ranked 21st in the majors, with Randy Arozarena contributing a significant 5.5 fWAR. For the Mariners to return to the postseason, they would need to add roughly 15 WAR via internal improvements and external additions—a daunting task.
The article explores various scenarios, presenting optimistic, neutral, and alarming projections for the 2027 Mariners, all calculated on the back of a napkin.
The article's basis was the top nine hitters slated for the 2027 Mariners roster, which is likely to be the starting lineup on Opening Day. The total WAR for these nine players in 2026 was 11.3, which is concerning, especially considering the injuries affecting key players like Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez, and disappointing performances from Josh Naylor and Brendan Donovan. This performance reflects the team's plan to replace three spots with two rookies, introducing a high degree of uncertainty.
Comparing the projections, the article notes that the initial ZiPS projections for the Mariners' batters were quite optimistic. However, these projections have been revised downward, with my own guess being 22.8 WAR, still lower than the earlier projections but still a competitive eighth-place finish in 2027. The article also provides a third column with personal assumptions, expecting Cal and Julio to bounce back and solid seasons for Naylor, Cole Young, and Dominic Canzone.
The biggest uncertainty lies in the three rookies, with a projected 5 WAR, though their potential impact could be even greater.
For the pitchers, the article presents an updated projection using Dan Syzmorski's ZiPS model, which was more favorable than the preseason projections. The article assumes modest improvements from Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, with a step back for Emerson Hancock and uncertainty surrounding Bryce Miller's health. Kade Anderson's projection is based on his recent strong performances, which the author believes may have been underestimated.
The bullpen was not extensively analyzed, but the projection stands at 17.1 WAR for 2027, close to the eighth-place ranking in the majors. A more optimistic outlook could potentially place the Mariners even higher, while a more pessimistic view could lead to significant disappointment.
Written by urgent.news from Yahoo Sports's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
