Midterms in den USA: IW: US-Zwischenwahlen dürften Trumps Zollkurs kaum verändern

Germany's Institute of German Economy (IW) predicts that the upcoming U.S. midterm elections are unlikely to ease President Donald Trump's trade policies. The IW writes in a study that with a regular end to Trump's term, an opposition majority in the U.S. Congress would likely be too narrow to overturn his vetoes. U.S. trade expert Samina Sultan from the IW explains that the U.S. remains a significant trade partner for Germany and the EU, but uncertainty will persist even after the midterms.

Trump's track record on trade falls short, with the Institute noting that his main economic promises have not been fulfilled. The U.S. trade deficit has not decreased consistently, rising to $130 billion in August 2026, 35 billion more than in August 2024. The EU's share of U.S. imports declined from 20 to 7 percent. However, this is primarily due to increased U.S. exports, especially energy, to the EU.

The U.S. trade deficit with Germany narrowed slightly, reaching $5.8 billion in August 2026, down from $6.6 billion two years prior. Foreign companies invested less in the U.S., with direct investments totaling $248 billion in 2025, 8.2 percent less than the previous year. Despite robust U.S. economic growth, fewer new jobs were created compared to the previous administration, and investments mainly focused on artificial intelligence.

Rising living costs due to the Iran war and ballooning U.S. government debt contributed to these challenges. The U.S. government debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time - over 120 percent of the economy. Republican candidates running for office have imposed tariffs on several countries since Trump's inauguration in January 2025, reaching a trade deal with the EU that benefits the U.S. and sets a 15 percent tariff on most European imports.

During the U.S. congressional elections on November 3, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of 100 Senate seats will be up for election. Surveys suggest the Democrats could seize the majority in the House of Representatives, while the Senate remains unclear. Even if Democrats gain a majority in one or both chambers, overturning a Trump veto would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers, which is highly unlikely in practice.