Konjunktur und Märkte: Wie steht es um die US‑Wirtschaft? Drei Grafiken zeigen Warnsignale

The U.S. Commerce Department announced strong economic growth on Thursday, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increasing by 3.4% in the third quarter, the largest quarterly rise in over a year. This growth was driven by strong private consumption and business investments. Generally, a growing economy is favorable for stock trading. However, is the U.S. economy truly in good shape? The M&G Investments investment firm warns in its "Halloween horror charts" that there are signs of potential problems for the U.S. economy.

M&G highlights three warning signs that could burden the crucial consumer spending in the U.S. economy. First, consumer spending is outpacing savings. While consumer spending is up, real income growth has been minimal, with only a 0.5% increase without government benefits. This means consumption is largely supported by savings rather than income growth.

Notably, consumer savings have been growing faster than incomes since mid-2024, indicating a shrinking safety net for high consumer spending. Additionally, when income falls compared to the previous year, it has often occurred during or near a recession, though no direct evidence confirms a repetition of this pattern.

Second, the premium for refining oil has skyrocketed compared to the price of oil itself. This is because the process of converting crude oil into diesel has become significantly more expensive. The refining premium has nearly quadrupled this year, far exceeding the levels seen at the start of the Ukraine war in February 2022. Diesel fuel, which powers goods transportation, agriculture, and machinery, could be a more significant driver of inflation than oil prices alone.

Even if global conflicts are resolved and oil prices decline, persistently high refining costs could lead to ongoing inflation and economic challenges.

Third, existing home sales are lower than during the aftermath of the financial crisis. With rising interest rates, the U.S. housing market is already facing difficulties. M&G strategists are particularly concerned about the low percentage of existing home sales relative to owner-occupied homes, which fell to 4.75% in 2023, the lowest level since 2010.

Many homeowners took advantage of low interest rates to secure long-term mortgages, meaning a move would require a significantly higher interest rate. This situation has negative implications: reduced housing sales could lead to lower demand for furniture, appliances, and home renovation services. Fewer transactions mean less business for lawyers, notaries, real estate agents, contractors, and moving companies.

Concerningly, this isn't just a problem for the housing industry but also for the broader economy that relies on widespread growth.