Could Israel's elections lead to a breakthrough with the Palestinians? Abbas says it can - analysis

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas expressed optimism that Israel's upcoming elections might provide a chance to resume peace negotiations. This statement, made during a meeting with Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides, suggests Abbas believes Cyprus could play a significant role. Both Cyprus and Israel have recently strengthened their defense ties, and Cyprus has maintained solid relations with Arab nations.

Abbas stated his desire for dialogue to commence right after a new Israeli government is established. However, the feasibility of such a development depends on whether the future Israeli coalition is willing and capable of making substantial policy changes.

The Israeli-Palestinian peace process has been dormant for decades, with the last significant US-backed negotiations under Secretary of State John Kerry ending in 2014. The political and security landscape has since altered dramatically, with both Abbas and Israel's prime minister holding power for over two decades. Far-right factions advocating for the dismantlement of the Palestinian Authority (PA) have had little interest in cooperating with the PA. In fact, following an attack near Hebron, many officials at the scene called for weakening the PA.

Despite these challenges, Abbas sees an opportunity to renew the Palestinian Authority's diplomatic standing, especially as international focus shifts to Gaza's reconstruction and future governance. However, achieving a comprehensive agreement would require addressing several complex issues, such as representation of Palestinians in Gaza, governing the territory, and preventing Hamas from launching further attacks on Israel.

The ongoing conflict in the West Bank, the limited self-rule exercised by the PA, and the broader geopolitical interests of regional players like Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE also pose significant hurdles.

While a new Israeli government could potentially alter the diplomatic landscape, the chances for major negotiations with the Palestinians appear slim. Abbas, now in his mid-80s, may not have the stamina to pursue such talks. The White House, under President Biden, remains committed to regional diplomacy and the Board of Peace initiative for Gaza.

However, the administration's attention is divided between Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria. Other regional actors also have their own agendas, making the prospects for a breakthrough in Israeli-Palestinian relations uncertain.