Copper set for first monthly loss since June as AI spending worries weigh

Copper prices declined on Friday, appearing poised to end a three-month upward trend in October as worries over insufficient AI returns dampened risk appetite. The benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange slipped 0.9% to $14,227 per metric ton by 10:58 GMT, after dipping to a one-week low of $14,216 earlier in the day.

Copper, essential in power and construction, was set to register a 1% decline in October, as oil prices surged and technology sector uncertainties triggered a move to bonds. Copper maintained support from a premium in the LME cash contract compared to the benchmark, driven by reduced metal availability in traditional consuming hubs due to months of shipments into US stocks.

Neil Welsh, head of metals at broker Britannia Global Markets, noted that backwardation in copper remains elevated, indicating continued short-term scarcity. The Yangshan copper premium, reflecting Chinese demand for imported copper, hovered near a 13-year high of $205 per ton, reflecting robust demand in the world's leading metals market.

The premium has been sustained by tighter domestic scrap supplies and a drop in copper prices from the September record of $14,875 per ton. On the supply front, Rio Tinto halted underground operations at its Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia due to seismic activity and border delays for trucks transporting copper concentrate from the mine.

Tin plummeted 1.9% to $48,505 per ton, its lowest level in over six months, amid AI-related spending concerns, while the premium of the LME cash tin contract over the benchmark reached $350 per ton, the highest since April 2024, signaling tight supply. Indonesia's September refined tin exports declined 18% year-on-year. Aluminium and lead remained unchanged at $3,077.50 and $1,914.50, respectively, while zinc slipped 0.1% to $3,877.50, and nickel rose 0.1% to $15,540.