Business Cycle Indicators: GDP, Personal Income, Mfg & Trade Sales, Consumption
Consumption flat, personal income ex-transfers down. Nominal consumption and income both below consensus by 0.1% m/m. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in…
In October 2026, consumption remained flat while personal income excluding transfers decreased compared to the previous month, both falling short of expectations by 0.1%. Nominal consumption and income were also below consensus levels. The figures illustrate the employment situation, with NFP employment, civilian employment adjusted for population controls, industrial production, personal income, manufacturing and trade sales, and monthly GDP all presented in chained 2017 dollars and log-normalized to January 2025.
Civilian employment, adjusted using experimental controls, and manufacturing production are depicted alongside other indicators such as ADP private nonfarm payroll employment, real retail sales, CPI deflated, freight services indexes, and the coincident index in chained 2017 dollars. These sources include data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), ADP via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Federal Reserve, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Written by urgent.news from Econbrowser's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
