Australian Dollar nudges higher on renewed RBA tightening bets after hotter inflation
AUD/USD edges slightly higher on Friday, gaining 0.08% on the day to trade around 0.7035 at the time of writing.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) climbed slightly higher on Friday, gaining 0.08% to trade near 0.7035 against the US Dollar (USD) as of publication time. This rebound stems from heightened expectations of an interest rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), driven by unexpectedly robust inflation figures and recent stern statements from central bank officials.
On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged 4.3% year-over-year in September, a sharp uptick from 4% in August and surpassing forecasts of 4.2%. This acceleration in inflation signals growing concerns about sustained price pressures, limiting the RBA's flexibility to maintain monetary policy as is.
Governor Michele Bullock's recently stern tone, suggesting that inflationary pressures are starting to surface, has further fueled speculation about another rate hike during the upcoming meeting on November 3. Current market forecasts now place the likelihood of this rate increase at 80%, up from a 60% estimate prior to the latest inflation data.
This shift in expectations on the RBA's stance bolsters the AUD, as investors anticipate that Australian interest rates will stay higher for an extended period. In contrast, the USD faces uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy outlook. On Wednesday, the central bank left its key interest rate steady within the 3.75%-4.00% range, stressing the importance of upcoming economic data in shaping its future actions.
Fed officials remain vigilant about inflationary risks. On Friday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin emphasized a gradual approach to interest rates, noting that while the broad direction of monetary policy is clear, the speed of adjustments remains crucial. He highlighted rising cost pressures on US businesses, citing a surge in investment in artificial intelligence as an additional inflationary factor affecting supply chains and demand.
These remarks imply the Fed may adopt a cautious tone despite persistent inflation. Nonetheless, growing anticipation of a tightening monetary policy in Australia continues to bolster the AUD/USD pair. In technical terms, AUD/USD sits at 0.7035, showing a mildly bullish short-term outlook as it hovers above both the 100-period and 200-period simple moving averages (SMAs).
The pair is nearing the 0.7040 resistance level, with the Relative Strength Index (14) at 52, indicating sustained buying pressure while maintaining a safe distance from overbought conditions. Potential resistance levels above 0.7040 include 0.7055 and a significant hurdle near 0.7068. On the downside, support is offered by the 100-period SMA at 0.7032, followed by the 200-period SMA at 0.7026, with deeper support near 0.7010 and 0.6994 if the market experiences further correction.
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