Are there too many misdemeanor convictions?
Maybe so: Misdemeanors account for three-quarters of criminal cases filed annually in the United States, yet causal evidence on the impacts of misdemeanor conviction is scarce. We combine administrative and survey data to provide novel evidence of how misdemeanor conviction affects the socioeconomic outcomes of defendants and their families. Using data on nearly seven million […] The post Are…
Recent research by Nikhil Rao and James Reeves suggests that there may be an excessive number of misdemeanor convictions in the United States. Misdemeanors make up a significant portion of criminal cases filed each year, yet there is limited evidence on the effects of misdemeanor convictions on defendants and their families' socioeconomic outcomes.
To examine the impact of misdemeanor convictions, the researchers combined administrative and survey data from nearly seven million defendants in 11 states. They characterized the types of people involved in the misdemeanor system and estimated causal impacts of a conviction versus a charge using seven county reforms that significantly reduced conviction rates. The researchers used a regression discontinuity design, which yielded precise null average effects of the reforms on criminal and labor market outcomes.
Their findings indicate that defendants dismissed by the reform are unlikely to re-offend if dismissed, but they are also unlikely to be harmed by a conviction. The majority of defendants affected are older and have been charged with minor crimes, which is a departure from the average defendant. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that misdemeanor convictions disproportionately harm young and first-time defendants, implying that targeted interventions aimed at dismissing defendants from this group could be beneficial.
The researchers' causal estimates further suggest a negative marginal value of public funds spent on misdemeanor convictions, even when accounting for plausible general deterrence effects.
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