AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Texas on Election Day

The 2026 midterm elections in Texas present a crucial test for Republican dominance and Democrats' best opportunity in decades to win a key U.S. Senate seat. The race for the Senate will be between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, an embattled attorney general allied with President Donald Trump. Talarico's campaign emphasizes border security and legal immigration, while Paxton promises to champion Trump's priorities, including building the border wall and deporting "criminal illegal aliens."

Trump's endorsement has been both a boon and a potential liability for Paxton, as his support is both popular and controversial. Polls suggest a tight race, making this one of the most expensive Senate contests in history, with Talarico raising significantly more money than Paxton. The race for Texas' 34th Congressional District, on the state's southern Gulf Coast, is also highly competitive, with Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez facing Republican Eric Flores.

The district's boundaries have been redrawn to favor Republicans, and Flores' campaign has removed a reference to Trump from its website. In the Texas governor's race, incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott faces Democratic state House Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Despite Abbott having only presided over Texas since 2015, he has maintained a solid Republican base.

However, recent polls indicate a tight race, potentially making it one of the most vulnerable contests in Abbott's political career.