AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Maine on Election Day

North Carolina voters will cast their ballots for a new U.S. senator in one of the most scrutinized midterm contests of the year. The race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis could reveal whether an association with President Donald Trump is advantageous or detrimental in the current political climate.

Democrats see the election as a crucial opportunity to secure an additional seat in the chamber and potentially shift the balance of power in their favor. The two primary candidates are Democrat Roy Cooper, the state's former governor, and Republican Michael Whatley, endorsed by Trump. Whatley has maintained his close ties to Trump, even campaigning with him, while Cooper has focused on the affordability crisis and public safety.

Republicans in other midterm battleground states have tried to distance themselves from Trump, but Whatley has continued to tout his alliance with the president. Trump has emphasized their connection during campaign stops, telling supporters "in this election, I’m asking you to pretend I’m on the ballot just one more time."

Whatley's early campaign centered on crime, claiming Cooper's policies as governor contributed to rising public safety issues. Cooper, who served two terms as governor, countered by emphasizing the state's falling violent crime rates. Cooper raised over $49.6 million as of mid-October, compared to Whatley's $13.7 million.

Democrats struggle to flip the Senate seat blue, as North Carolina hasn't elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 2008. The state has consistently supported Republicans in every presidential election since 1980, except in 2008 when Obama won by less than half a percent. Cooper served as governor from 2017 to 2025, winning the 2016 election by a narrow margin while Trump carried the state by nearly four points. In 2020, Cooper widened his margin slightly but narrowly lost to Biden.

Two of North Carolina's 14 congressional districts are also under close watch. In the 1st District, Democratic Rep. Don Davis faces a rematch against his 2024 Republican challenger, Laurie Buckhout. The district has been redrawn to disadvantage Democrats, shifting some Black voters to neighboring District 3. In the 11th District, Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards suspended his reelection campaign after the House Ethics Committee recommended his censure for inappropriate conduct.

State House Rep. Jennifer Balkcom was nominated by the Republican executive committee to run in Edwards' place.