AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Florida on Election Day

Florida Republicans aim to maintain their grip on statewide elections on Tuesday as voters cast ballots for Senate, governor, and other legislative offices. This election follows the adoption of a new congressional map by Republicans, which is designed to bolster the party's prospects of retaining control of the closely divided House.

The state has been gradually moving towards the Republican camp over the past quarter-century. While Democrats held a voter registration edge for decades in 2000, Republicans now outnumber Democrats in the state by 1.5 million.

In the gubernatorial race, the Democrats have put forward David Jolly, a former Republican, as their candidate. Jolly secured the party's nomination by a significant margin, winning 61% of the votes in the August primary. He is running alongside former Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham, who is the daughter of the late Democratic senator and governor Bob Graham.

The Republican nominee in this race is Rep. Byron Donalds, who emerged victorious in the 11-candidate primary with the support of President Donald Trump's endorsement. Donalds, who endorsed Trump over Republican Governor Ron DeSantis in the 2024 presidential primaries, is poised to become Florida's first Black governor and the nation's first Black elected Republican governor if he wins the election.

In the Senate race, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody is defending her seat against Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon and an independent candidate. Moody was appointed to fill the term vacated by Marco Rubio, who was appointed by Trump as Secretary of State. She is running for the remaining two years of Rubio's term. Nixon, a democratic socialist, received 56% of the primary vote against retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, who garnered around 44%.

The new congressional boundaries drawn by Republicans in May have significantly impacted several districts that were previously held by Democrats. Three Democratic incumbents – Kathy Castor in the 14th District around Tampa, Darren Soto in the 9th District near Orlando, and Jared Moskowitz in the 25th District in South Florida along the Gold Coast – face tough challenges in their newly redrawn districts.

The map has also shifted the focus of the election, with Democrats typically performing better in Orlando and Tallahassee, while Republicans have traditionally fared well in North Florida, the panhandle, and Central Florida along the Gulf of Mexico.