5 things Westminster doesn’t really know about the UK economy (but probably should)

1. True levels of immigration: Determining accurate immigration numbers has proven challenging for successive governments. The International Passenger Survey (IPS) used to calculate immigration, which relied on people providing information at airports, train stations, and ports, was found to be inaccurate in 2012-2020, missing 76% of European Union nationals, or 93,000 people a year.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) only discovered this error after attempting a new approach focusing less on the IPS, which was discontinued in 2025. This new measurement still proved inaccurate in June 2023, with net migration underestimated by 234,000 people. The original ONS figures reported 672,000 net immigration in November 2023, but this was corrected to 906,000 the following year.

2. The scale of unemployment: The government's plan to reduce welfare spending, particularly targeting young people, relies on accurate workforce data. However, the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the primary source of this information, has been plagued by issues. Between 2019 and 2024, the LFS missed 1 million workers, primarily due to low response rates from people with full-time jobs answering phones during work hours.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) admitted that the survey is unreliable for measuring productivity. Laura Gilbert, who ran data science in No. 10 Downing Street, stated that the number of young people out of work claimed by Healey is unlikely to be accurate, with a high likelihood of being off by as many as 50,000 either way.

The NEET (not in education, employment, or training) count is also based on a subset of the LFS, making it susceptible to inaccuracies.

3. Inflation and GDP: The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) presented inflation and GDP forecasts for 2027 with significant uncertainty. They admitted a one in five chance inflation will exceed 4.5% and an equal chance it will stay under 2.5%. These contrasting outcomes could have drastic effects on the cost of living, a major political concern.

Gilbert explained that issues with net migration numbers and workforce data feeding into inflation and GDP projections. Understanding migration helps determine the demographics of the country, while workforce data inaccuracies create a false impression of unemployment rates, impacting GDP and inflation figures.

4. Free school meals: The number of pupils in England receiving free school meals is reported as just over 2.2 million, representing more than a quarter of all children. However, Gilbert warns that these figures may not be entirely reliable.