World Bank projects Brent oil prices to fall to $79 per barrel in 2027

The World Bank anticipates a decline in Brent crude oil prices to a projected average of $79 per barrel in 2027, a decrease from $91 per barrel in 2026. This downward trend is anticipated due to an increase in global oil supplies, which will alleviate market tightness. According to the World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook, Brent prices may average nearly $100 per barrel in the last quarter of 2026, driven by ongoing supply issues in the Middle East, tanker shortages, and vessel attacks.

Nonetheless, the bank anticipates that recent surges in Gulf crude shipments will persist, enabling global oil output to near its 2025 capacity by 2027. This increase in production will exert downward pressure on prices.

The World Bank projects a 32% year-on-year rise in global energy prices in 2026, followed by a 12% decline in 2027. The bank's energy price predictions have been revised upward by 7% for 2026 and 14% for 2027, in comparison to its April forecasts. This revision is attributed to supply disruptions that are expected to persist but be less severe than initially projected.

The global oil market is expected to remain in deficit during the fourth quarter of 2026, supporting higher prices before heightened production eases supply constraints in the following year.

The anticipated reduction in consumption, paired with a recovery in crude production, forms a key component of the World Bank's outlook for lower oil prices in 2027. This forecast comes amid ongoing uncertainty regarding global energy supplies, with geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran contributing to fluctuations in crude prices. However, the projected drop to $79 per barrel in 2027 hinges, in part, on the longevity of Gulf crude shipments and whether global production recovers as expected.