Valores y sectores para aprovechar una de las mayores rotaciones desde la pandemia

Recent market turbulence has seen one of the largest sectoral rotations in European portfolios since 2020, according to investment banks Julius Baer and Morgan Stanley. Both firms identify multiple opportunities at both the sectoral and individual company levels.

European equity markets have grown accustomed to successive episodes of risk aversion aversion. The numerous sources of pressure and investors' susceptibility following a prolonged bull run have triggered, rather than a flight from the market, a massive sector rotation. Julius Baer analysts put this adjustment in context, noting that European cyclical sectors have underperformed defensive sectors by 13.7% since the start of the fourth quarter. This gap represents the largest decline since March 2020, during the height of the pandemic.

Investors have reduced exposure to sectors closely tied to the economic cycle and increased exposure to those with a more defensive profile, amid rising risk aversion. Morgan Stanley analysts also highlight this monumental flow of investor capital. According to Morgan Stanley, an index with significant exposure to AI and semiconductor companies has underperformed the MSCI Europe index by 25% since its June peak.

Meanwhile, European software companies, initially the biggest victims of the AI shift, have recovered 80% of their losses since January.

The sector rotation extends beyond this. Morgan Stanley notes that the European banking sector has fallen 12% since its August peak, while sectors less exposed to cyclical trends, such as medical technology, life sciences, pharmaceuticals, and tobacco, have surged by 14%.