US inflation stubbornly high in challenge to Trump

US president Donald Trump faces a challenge as US inflation remains stubbornly high, casting a shadow over his economic record ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. Despite strong GDP growth, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose by 3.6% year-on-year in September, indicating accelerating inflation.

The Commerce Department's data showed real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, beating market expectations, driven by surging investment, consumer spending, and government spending, partly offset by a decrease in exports. The high inflation rate is particularly problematic for Trump, as voters head into the key midterm polls, with Democrats aiming to seize control of both houses of Congress from the Republican Party.

The US-Israel conflict with Iran has contributed to global energy price hikes, leaving US consumers paying 42% more for regular gasoline compared to a year ago. Trump's tariff policies have disrupted global trade and fueled inflation. Strong GDP growth bodes well for Trump, who has often highlighted the economy's robustness despite rising prices.

However, economists warn that the economic gains have been uneven, benefiting wealthier households while leaving working-class families struggling. The Federal Reserve, during its most recent meeting, decided to keep interest rates steady, citing the need for more data to determine the best approach to combat high inflation. Chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, reiterated the Fed's commitment to its long-term two-percent target for PCE inflation, which it has not met for over five years.

Markets anticipate another quarter-point interest rate hike by the Fed in December. Trump's economic agenda has been criticized by his political opponents, who point to the rapid increase in PCE inflation, especially in energy goods and services, as evidence of the economic strain faced by American families.