Ukraine National Bank cuts forecast: GDP to drop 0.4% in 2026 with 12.5% inflation, rise 0.4% in 2027 with 7.3% inflation
The National Bank of Ukraine has substantially downgraded its forecast for gross domestic product (GDP), shifting from expectations of growth of 1.8% this year and 2.8% next year to a projected contraction of 0.4% this year, followed by a recovery of just 0.4% next year.
Ukraine's National Bank has significantly revised its economic forecasts, predicting a 0.4% contraction in GDP for 2026, followed by a mere 0.4% growth in 2027. Inflation is expected to surge to 12.5% in 2026 from 10.0%, driven by the ongoing conflict, fuel price hikes, and damage to logistics infrastructure. The bank attributes the GDP downgrade to a 1.9 percentage point impact of intensified shelling, with industrial sectors and trade hardest hit.
However, a revival is anticipated in 2027, fueled by defense industry investments and infrastructure restoration. Nominal GDP estimates also saw a downward adjustment, from UAH 10.065 trillion in 2026 to UAH 10.01 trillion, and from UAH 11.22 trillion in 2027 to UAH 11.135 trillion.
Written by urgent.news from Interfax-Ukraine's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
