The Commodities Feed: European gas tops €100 as supply fears grow

European natural gas prices surged to above EUR100/MWh for the first time since 2022, with TTF settling 4.85% higher. The market's upward trend showed little indication of imminent relief, despite the potential for renewed US strikes on Iran following the US midterm elections next week. QatarEnergy reported extending force majeure for several buyers until the end of the year, which could lead to significant LNG supply disruptions during the heating season.

Unplanned outages in Norway further added to supply concerns, while forecasts predict colder-than-usual weather in Northwest Europe from the following week, raising heating demand. EU gas storage levels are near 75% full, with winter storage draws yet to begin. Industrial demand also shows signs of softening, with Yara reporting curtailments in ammonia production due to high gas prices, resulting in a 7% YoY drop in European gas consumption.

This trend is expected to continue across European industry, particularly with gas prices remaining higher. Investment funds increased their net long position in TTF by 14.3TWh over the last reporting week to 207.4TWh, as fresh buying drove the increase.