Thai Baht: Oil risks point to weakness against US Dollar - MUFG
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 1.00% for a fourth consecutive meeting and still expects modest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2026 and 2027.
OCBC analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong maintain a cautiously optimistic stance on the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), despite concerns over the MSCI's proposed reclassification of Indonesia to standalone status. Factors such as foreign equity selling, elevated oil prices, and a firm US Dollar are putting downward pressure on the currency.
Investors are awaiting credible enforcement of market reforms before reassessing their exposure. While USD/IDR retains a bullish bias on technical charts, the RSI has entered overbought territory, warranting monitoring for a potential technical reversal. The IDR remains vulnerable to renewed pressure as foreign equity selling spills over onto government bonds.
A more convincing recovery will depend on stabilizing portfolio flows. Support levels are found at 18000 and 17972, while resistance levels are at 18190 and 18450.
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