Russia may use the Oleshky truce to rebuild its forces, ISW warns, as evacuees face a route through Russia and Belarus
The agreement spells out every leg of the evacuees’ trip except the last one home.
The Oleshky truce, brokered by the United States, aims to facilitate the evacuation of residents from the Russian-occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky. However, the agreement does not specify the exact route for those choosing to leave, raising concerns about the process and potential obstacles. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia may exploit the ceasefire to reinforce its forces in the Kherson Oblast, which lies just across the Dnipro from Oleshky.
The evacuation route involves traveling first to Anapa, a Russian airport, and then to Homiel in Belarus, with the journey expected to be completed by October 31. The Ukrainian delegation, led by human rights commissioner Dmytro Lubinets, is tasked with navigating this complex route and ensuring the safe departure of evacuees. However, the agreement remains silent on the method of transportation after Belarus, leaving room for uncertainty regarding the residents' ability to reach Ukrainian-held territory.
Human Rights Watch has previously documented similar scenarios, such as the forced screening of evacuees from Mariupol, where many were ultimately sent to Russia instead of Ukraine. In Washington, the Congressional Ukraine Caucus expressed concern over reports indicating that Russia may be hindering the evacuees' path to Ukrainian-controlled territories. The Congressional Ukraine Caucus's alarm echoes the experiences of previous evacuations, raising questions about the legitimacy and safety of the chosen routes.
As the Ukrainian delegation arrives in Belarus on October 29, the first in-person meeting takes place at Homiel airport, marking the beginning of potential cooperation between the two delegations. Belarus has also joined the operation, further complicating the route for those seeking to return to Ukraine. While the ceasefire has held for 54 hours without violations, aid is set to reach Oleshky on October 30, providing a glimmer of hope for the residents in need. The ceasefire is scheduled to last until November 1, 23:59.
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