Polymarket investigates suspicious trades on Israel election

Polymarket is investigating a series of trades placed before the Israeli election on October 27, 2026, which they believe may be related to insider trading. Hundreds of new accounts made bets that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party would perform better than their opponents, and some of these trades have already turned profitable, yielding over US$100,000.

The betting activity became clear due to the transparency of Polymarket's blockchain ledger. Two data analysis firms, Polysights and Bubblemaps, have also flagged the trades as suspicious and are conducting their own investigations. Polymarket temporarily halted trading on October 29 after users reported funds being stolen, citing a third-party compromise.

Once trading resumed, the company stated that Netanyahu's odds of becoming the next prime minister surged to 59%, while opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot's odds dropped to 21%. This comes amid ongoing concerns about insider trading in prediction markets, especially around sensitive political events. In a letter to Polymarket and its main rival Kalshi, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren and Republican Senator John Curtis raised questions about the exchanges' ability to effectively police insider trading and manipulation in election-related markets.