Our world runs on satellites. What happens when we can’t launch more?
“Like riding a broomstick in a hurricane.” This is reportedly how one SpaceX engineer described the intense atmospheric reentry of the first Falcon 9 rocket to go to space and then successfully land back here. That moment, on December 21, 2015, marked the beginning of a dizzying decade-long spell for the space sector, as engineers no longer had to worry about getting their technology into space.…
In the past decade, the satellite industry has experienced a remarkable transformation, with SpaceX leading the charge. The launch of the Falcon 9 rocket, which could reach space and then safely return to Earth, marked a turning point. This innovation enabled a rapid increase in satellite deployment, as well as a drop in the cost of reaching orbit.
Prior to this, building satellites, securing capital, and finding customers were the primary industry challenges. However, with the advent of Falcon 9, the industry's focus shifted to manufacturing and launching more satellites.
Satellites play an indispensable role in our daily lives, from navigation and financial systems to weather forecasting and defense. Despite these critical applications, the industry now faces a new challenge as SpaceX prepares to transition to its Starship era. The Falcon 9 rocket, despite its transformative impact, is set to wind down, and SpaceX is redirecting its resources to its new spaceport in Louisiana.
Starship, SpaceX's next-generation spacecraft, is expected to have a capacity significantly greater than that of Falcon 9. However, this increased capacity may lead to a surge in internal and government demand for SpaceX's launch services, potentially crowding out commercial companies.
Commercial satellite operators like SES, where the author spent decades as CTO, have already benefited from SpaceX's technological advancements. SES was the first commercial customer to launch a satellite using a reusable Falcon 9 booster. The company anticipates that the new Starlink satellites will further expand SpaceX's capabilities. However, this increased capacity may not necessarily translate into lower costs or more availability for commercial operators.
Starship may bring about a new landscape in the commercial satellite market, but the author cautions that commercial companies should not assume they will have access to this capacity. SpaceX's own demand for launch services, as well as the growing needs of NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense, may divert resources away from the commercial sector. The author suggests that if the launch bottleneck remains unaddressed, the price of launch will increase, and availability may become a more significant concern than cost.
The author argues that the diversity of launch providers is crucial for the future of the satellite industry. Companies with stronger balance sheets will have the advantage of securing launches well in advance, diversifying across providers, and potentially absorbing the costs of any delays or mishaps. Smaller businesses, on the other hand, may struggle to gain flight experience and attract investors due to unreliable and timely access to orbit.
The author concludes that the space industry must recognize the importance of launch provision and work towards ensuring a diverse and reliable supply of launch capabilities.
Written by urgent.news from Fast Company's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
