Gerdau surfa o boom dos data centers nos EUA; UBS BB eleva preço-alvo

Gerdau is riding the AI data center boom in the United States, according to UBS BB. The investment bank has raised its price target for the steelmaker's shares and reiterated a 'buy' recommendation. UBS analyst Caio Greiner believes the market may be underestimating the utility company's cash generation potential in the US, where the growth of artificial intelligence data centers is expected to sustain demand for steel and maintain high margins.

Greiner argues that the market is overly focused on supply-side risks, such as potential capacity increases and imports, but "demand growth is likely to continue to outpace any pressure on supply." Greiner notes that the commercial bar and wire segment in the US is benefiting from structural trends in the non-residential construction market, and expects demand to remain strong in the coming quarters and years.

"The apparent consumption of these two products grew about 6.5% year-to-date, despite a roughly 1% decline in total non-residential construction spending. This divergence reflects, in part, the strength of the data centers, a long steel-intensive segment, whose construction spending in the US grew 75% year-over-year in August." Greiner also expects investments from major cloud service providers to accelerate through 2027, with new constructions advancing roughly 200%.

He believes this acceleration in consumption will be sufficient to absorb new capacity and imports, keeping Gerdau's margins in high ranges. UBS raised its price target from R$31 to R$35 and increased its projections for EBITDA this year and next. The bank now expects Gerdau to generate EBITDA of R$13.9 billion this year, 3% higher than the previous forecast, and R$15.2 billion in 2027, an 8% increase.

The revision reflects a more favorable outlook for the company's North American operation, with the expected EBITDA margin for 2027 rising from 24% to 26.4%. After the re-election of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, UBS also changed its currency premise, now expecting the dollar to trade at R$5.40, which benefits Gerdau's results.

UBS currently trades Gerdau at 3.5 times the estimated 2027 EBITDA, with a free cash flow yield of 14%. The company is valued at R$47.8 billion on the B3, with its share price up 33% over the past year. Currently, Gerdau's stock is up 6.5% in another day of Ibovespa decline.