Firefly Aerospace Is 75% Below Its High. Here's Why the Company That Landed on the Moon Is My Favorite Space Stock Under $20.
A 75% decline could offer investors a compelling entry point.
Firefly Aerospace (FLY) has seen its stock price plummet about 75% since reaching a high of $73.80 in August 2025. Currently trading around $18.23, the company's market cap is now estimated at $3 billion. While this decline may appear steep, the company boasts proven technology, paying customers, and a robust portfolio of government contracts. At less than $20 per share, Firefly stands out as the author's preferred speculative space stock under $20.
In March 2025, Firefly's Blue Ghost lunar lander successfully landed on the Moon, marking the first commercial spacecraft to achieve a fully successful lunar landing. This milestone bolstered Firefly's standing in the burgeoning commercial space sector. However, lunar exploration is just one facet of Firefly's business. The company also develops the Alpha small-satellite launch vehicle and the Eclipse rocket, in collaboration with Northrop Grumman.
Additionally, the Elytra spacecraft platform, designed for payload transportation, satellite operations, and orbital missions, further diversifies Firefly's capabilities across various markets, including commercial satellite launches, military space operations, and NASA's lunar exploration programs.
In Q2 2026, Firefly reported record revenue of $117.7 million, a staggering 659% year-over-year increase and a 45.5% sequential rise. This substantial growth contrasts sharply with the $160 million revenue generated in all of 2025. The company has also secured a $144 million NASA contract for another Blue Ghost lunar mission, bringing its cumulative contracted lunar missions to six.
Firefly is extending its reach beyond lunar landers, with the recent acquisition of Space-ng adding autonomous navigation technology that could enhance future spacecraft operations. Firefly is strategically positioning itself to cater to customers at multiple stages of a space mission, from satellite launches to spacecraft transportation and operations.
Despite not being profitable, Firefly's revenue growth, established lunar capabilities, and expanding government relationships offer a credible path to becoming a larger space enterprise. With a valuation of approximately 10 times trailing annual revenue, Firefly remains a volatile, high-risk investment but holds significant long-term upside potential for investors comfortable with a multi-year holding period.
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