China’s clean tech exports to cut global emissions by Brazil-sized amount in 2026

China's clean technology exports are set to significantly reduce global carbon emissions, according to a new analysis ahead of the COP31 climate summit. The forecasted emissions cut amounts to 450 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, equivalent to Brazil's annual fossil fuel consumption. The majority of the avoided emissions come from countries in the Global South, which have increased imports of Chinese solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and batteries to decarbonize their power grids.

China, despite being the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, is the leading supplier of clean technology that helps other nations transition to renewable energy. The impact of these exports has grown from 370 million tonnes of CO2 avoided last year, surpassing the UK's fossil fuel emissions. The manufacturing emissions of clean technology are offset within six months through the use of the equipment.

Over the lifetime of exported equipment, China's clean tech exports are expected to avoid 8,400 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, equivalent to the annual emissions of the US and India combined. Despite concerns about China's industrial overcapacity, the analysis suggests that China's clean tech exports have created new markets rather than displacing existing producers.

However, the surge in green exports has led to lower per-unit prices, impacting the revenues of incumbent producers. China has vowed to address this issue at the upcoming COP31 summit.