BofA tracks shipping data showing Red Sea transit recovery

Bank of America recently released a report detailing shipping and supply chain data. According to the report, container shipping through the Red Sea has rebounded to 65% of its pre-pandemic levels over the past two weeks. This represents a significant improvement from the 50% rate seen in September. More container liners are expected to resume service along the Red Sea route in the near future.

In contrast, global port congestion has dropped to just 10% of the fleet, down from previous peaks of 11-12%. This reduction in congestion is primarily due to decreased traffic in North Asia. However, port congestion may rise again in the coming weeks as a result of Typhoon Champi and the return of vessels to the Red Sea route. Container rates for long-haul trades have peaked, with Europe and transpacific rates currently aligning with Shanghai Containerized Freight Index levels due to strong off-peak demand and increased congestion.

Tanker spot rates have fallen from their recent highs but are still elevated. Real Very Large Crude Carrier rates are $650,000 per day for Oman to China routes and $450,000 per day for US to China routes. Forward curves suggest that the average VLCC rate may stabilize around $200,000 per day by 2027. Dry bulk rates in the fourth quarter of 2026 are 31% higher compared to the same period last year.

Panama Canal bulker transits are 30% lower than a year ago, despite recent improvements in water levels. Forward curves indicate that average rates will remain 25% higher year-over-year through the fourth quarter of 2026 and into the first quarter of 2027. Car carrier demand increased by 9.4% year-over-year in September 2026, while demand for the first nine months of 2026 is projected to be 10.4% higher than the same period in 2025. Hoegh rates, excluding fuel costs, have rebounded by 4% year-over-year.