Asia rice: Indian rice prices firm, Vietnam rates climb to near two-year highs

Indian and Vietnamese rice export prices remained relatively stable this week, nearing their highest levels in over a year, while Vietnam's prices reached their highest since January 2025 due to concerns about potential supply disruptions that could hinder exporters' ability to meet growing demand. Vietnam's 5% broken rice was traded at $470-$480 per metric ton on Thursday, up from $440-$450 a week prior. "Domestic supplies are thin," a trader in Ho Chi Minh City remarked.

The autumn-winter harvest is not expected to commence until late November, with output projected to be just half of the summer-autumn harvest, according to traders. Traders also noted that the El Niño phenomenon could negatively impact rice production starting next year. A trader predicted further price increases from next month, when the Philippines is anticipated to resume rice purchases from Vietnam.

Indian 5% broken parboiled rice was quoted at $387-$392 per ton this week, unchanged from the previous week. Indian 5% broken white rice was priced between $389 and $394 per ton. New-season paddy arrivals have started to increase in northern Indian states, with supplies anticipated to rise in central and southern states from next month, said a Kolkata-based exporter.

Thailand's 5% broken rice remained steady at $480 per ton this week, largely attributed to the exchange rate and robust domestic prices, traders explained. Some demand from the Philippines and other regular buyers has been observed for Thai rice, but other markets, such as Africa, have opted for the cheaper Indian variety, a Bangkok-based trader noted.

Flooding in certain regions has introduced uncertainty over supply, as harvesting is currently ongoing. Elevated domestic rice prices in Bangladesh persist, despite abundant stocks, as rising oil prices have increased production and transportation costs, burdening consumers.