World Bank projects 6pc fall in cotton output

The World Bank has predicted a 6 percent decrease in Pakistan's cotton output for 2026-27, as part of a broader global trend. In 2026-27, global cotton production is anticipated to drop by 3 percent, with reductions in key producers like China (-6 percent), Pakistan (-6 percent), and the United States (-3 percent). Conversely, Brazil and India are expected to see a 1 percent increase each.

The report also highlights that the Middle East conflict has caused significant disruptions to energy supplies, while other shocks are affecting commodity markets. These include Russia's conflict with Ukraine, which is impeding grain and oilseed shipments through the Black Sea and reducing Russia's oil product output, particularly diesel.

Furthermore, an exceptionally strong El Niño is threatening agricultural commodity production. Base metals prices have risen due to supply constraints, driven by increased demand from the renewable energy and technology sectors. The World Bank projects that global commodity prices will increase by 23 percent in 2026, with energy prices rising by 32 percent, making them the second-highest level since 2013.

This rise in commodity prices is attributed to a 5 percent decline in global oil production in 2026, which is expected to keep Brent oil prices higher, averaging USD91 per barrel for the year. Oil prices could be even higher if oil demand does not fall by 2.5 percent in 2026, the third-largest decrease since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic and the 1980 oil crisis.