World Bank forecasts 23% rise in commodity prices

Global commodity prices are expected to surge by 23% in 2026, according to the World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook released on Wednesday. The rise is attributed to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East disrupting oil supplies, as well as shipping issues and weather risks impacting food production. Energy prices are projected to climb by 32% this year, reversing a three-year downward trend before moderating in 2027.

Food commodity prices are anticipated to increase by about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027, resulting in an 18% cumulative rise. The bank warns that the outlook is sensitive to further global supply disruptions, particularly if the Middle East conflict escalates or Russia's oil infrastructure remains damaged. The World Bank has made between $50bn and $60bn available through existing financing instruments to help countries manage the impact of higher prices, particularly for vulnerable populations and low-income nations already grappling with debt burdens.