Will US midterm battles blind Washington to Asia? Japan isn’t taking any chances

Japan is preparing for an uncertain relationship with the United States following the upcoming midterm elections, which could result in political turmoil and distract from foreign policy commitments, say experts. Analysts warn that heightened political battles, including potential impeachment proceedings and legal actions against President Donald Trump, may divert attention from foreign affairs and complicate US-East Asia relations.

Michael Cucek, an assistant professor at Temple University's Japan Campus, believes China actively seeks chaos in US politics, seizing opportunities to become an irritant in various regions. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates Democrats are favored by nine percentage points in the generic congressional ballot, suggesting the likelihood of them gaining control of the House while struggling in the Senate.

Japanese officials acknowledge that the era of predictable Republican administrations is gone and are taking steps to bolster their domestic defense capabilities and diversify security ties with allies. This includes deepening cooperation with NATO and Indo-Pacific partners such as Australia, India, Germany, France, and the Philippines, focusing on areas like sharing military intelligence and joint maintenance of warships.

While Japan continues to prepare contingency plans, there are hopes for minimal political rifts with allies during the remainder of Trump's term, according to Cucek. Some conservatives in Japan, like former Conservative Party member Yoichi Shimada, are cautiously optimistic that a Republican majority in both houses could prove beneficial, despite acknowledging Trump's shortcomings.

Shimada believes that both Democrats and Republicans would likely collaborate on deterring China in the region.