Why Indian-American support for Trump is slipping before midterms

The support of Indian-Americans for President Donald Trump is weakening ahead of the November midterm elections, with issues such as immigration restrictions, rising living costs, and strained US-India relations contributing to this shift, according to analysts. A survey conducted by AAPI Data and Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote in August revealed that 66% of Indian-American respondents favored Democratic candidates for the US House of Representatives, while 18% backed Republicans.

Similarly, for the Senate, 66% of Indian-Americans preferred Democrats, and 22% backed Republicans. These findings follow an increase in Trump's support among Indian-American voters from 22% in 2020 to 32% in the October 2024 pre-election survey by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. However, this support had declined to 46% in the February 2026 survey.

At the same time, the proportion identifying as Democrats dropped from 56% in 2020 to 47% in 2024, before further reducing to 46% in February 2026. Republican identification stood at 19% in 2026, with 29% identifying as independents. With the midterms determining the balance of power in Congress and shaping legislative priorities and oversight of the president, Indian-Americans' shifting allegiances could influence some closely contested races, potentially benefiting Democrats.