What Happens Next In Israel Election: 4 Possible Outcomes

As the Israeli election results stand in a close race, multiple scenarios for the country's political future have been outlined by experts. With no declared winner, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to hold power, but his prospects are uncertain. The pro-Netanyahu coalition holds 53 seats, while parties supporting challenger Gadi Eisenkot have secured 48 seats.

Israeli Arab parties won 19 seats, positioning them potentially for a decisive role in coalition negotiations. Voter turnout was the highest in decades, reflecting a significant judgment on Netanyahu's leadership regarding recent events, including the Israeli war in Gaza, the U.S.-led war with Iran, and Israel's relationship with the U.S. and its international standing.

Despite the exit polls suggesting a defeat for Netanyahu, some analysts caution that the seasoned prime minister has a track record of overcoming seemingly devastating crises. The power-sharing process begins with President Isaac Herzog urging all parties to refrain from another election and approach coalition talks with an open mind.

Herzog will nominate a candidate to form a government, who has 42 days to assemble a ruling coalition. However, the odds strongly favor Netanyahu, with Ezra Hess, a Middle Eastern studies researcher, stating that the odds are not in favor of Eisenkot forming a coalition with Netanyahu.

If coalition negotiations fail, a second round of parliamentary elections would be triggered. This scenario is deemed most probable, as neither bloc is likely to reach the required 61 seats in the Knesset. Netanyahu's camp is currently 8 seats short of the majority, but he might attempt to secure individual defections or even consider joining forces with Eisenkot's Yashar party or other opposition figures.

However, analysts believe this path is highly unlikely, as it would require Netanyahu to abandon his traditional right-wing and ultra-Orthodox allies.

Netanyahu could also consider reinvoking U.S. attacks on Iran, potentially pressuring opposition politicians to join his government. This unstable government scenario would likely result in renewed elections once the offensive concludes. Alternatively, Netanyahu might try to persuade other parties, such as B’Yachad led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu party, or even Eisenkot's Yashar to join his coalition.

However, this would necessitate negotiations on key issues, such as ultra-Orthodox military service, which could alienate conservative factions like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Critics argue that this path is difficult to succeed.

For the opposition bloc, under Eisenkot, joining forces with Arab list parties is the quickest way to remove Netanyahu from power. However, Eisenkot has ruled out Ra'am's participation due to differences in coalition requirements. Additionally, joining ultra-Orthodox parties is also unlikely. Left-wing parties, such as Yair Golan's opposition force, have called for an alliance with Arab list parties. If Democrats' gains in the U.S. midterms next week are significant, this type of arrangement might become more feasible.