US Fed expected to hold rates steady ahead of key midterm elections

The US Federal Reserve is set to reveal its decision on interest rates on Wednesday (Oct 28), with expectations that the central bank will maintain steady rates in the days leading up to the important midterm elections. Despite surging inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began its second day of discussions, with Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to present a press conference following the decision at 2pm local time.

In September, policymakers voted to raise interest rates to a range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent, the first hike in three years, to combat inflation. The Fed has not met its long-term two-percent inflation target for more than five years, as households and businesses have faced persistent price increases. The inflation surge can be attributed to Donald Trump's war on Iran, launched in late February, which has caused energy prices to soar, alongside his various tariff policies.

The Fed's decision is imminent six days before the Nov 3 midterm elections, during which the Democratic Party aims to regain control of both houses of Congress from Trump's Republican-led administration. Inflation has been a significant issue for voters, with working-class households struggling to make ends meet despite overall stable economic growth. While consumer inflation in September was higher than anticipated, at 3.7 percent, it was still slightly below a three-year high reached in May.

Key Fed policymakers, including Warsh, have not expressed urgency in raising rates again immediately. Warsh suggested in Bangkok earlier this month that US economic conditions had broadly conformed to policymakers' expectations, leading to speculation that the Fed may pause at the October meeting. However, some experts, like Wendy Edelberg from the Brookings Institution, believe that a decision to hold rates would be contrary to other economic factors, as the labor market has remained relatively stable.

The Fed's dual mandate to maintain maximum employment and keep inflation to its long-term target has been largely achieved through the economy's key interest rate. Raising rates typically cools inflation but can also dampen economic activity, while lowering them can spur economic growth but may also fuel inflation. The US unemployment rate has remained stable around 4.2 percent over the past year, with job growth mostly positive in specific sectors.

Fed officials, such as Loretta Mester, former head of the Cleveland Fed, argue that the current economic conditions present an opportunity for policymakers to take advantage of the situation and press ahead with rate hikes, given the clear evidence of stable labor market and persistently high inflation. Despite admitting that the committee does not consider political issues when debating monetary policy, Trump's administration has continued its aggressive attacks on the Fed's independence.