The Missouri Election Crisis That Could Unfold After the Midterms
The monthslong saga over which map to use for the midterms has raised questions for Missouri's voters and election officials.
The implementation of a new congressional map in Missouri has created uncertainty about upcoming elections. Despite a recent Supreme Court decision, doubts persist days before Election Day. In 2023, President Donald Trump encouraged Republicans to redraw their congressional maps, and Missouri joined this trend alongside states like Texas, North Carolina, and California.
This led to significant changes, particularly in the Kansas City area. Missouri's Secretary of State refused to pause these changes for the August primary using the new map. The Eighth Circuit later ruled that switching maps for the general election would violate federal law and the Constitution. However, the Supreme Court stayed this judgment, allowing the 2026 general election to proceed with the 2022 map boundaries, despite candidates being chosen under the 2025 map.
Missouri's Solicitor General warned that the state would not be able to run an orderly 2026 election. The Supreme Court ruled that the 2025 map had not yet taken effect due to Missouri's referendum process. Around 1.4 million Missourians have changed districts, with 284,000 primary voters now in a different district. Citing court estimates, experts suggest this shift could impact results in the Fifth District, potentially altering the Republican delegation from 7-1 to 6-2, which could be crucial if House control is close.
Despite the court's decision, legal disputes may arise if close results, voter-district disputes, or a contested redistricting referendum occur on November 3. While some election officials express no concerns, others worry about potential post-election challenges.
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