The Fed decides today: Here are the 2 levels every Bitcoin trader should watch

The Federal Reserve's decision on October 28 will shape the trajectory of Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. Bitcoin's price rose 0.59 per cent to $80,576.90 in the past 24 hours, while the total cryptocurrency market cap increased 0.64 per cent to $2.7 trillion. However, the headline figures hide an important split - Bitcoin's gain was driven by a market-wide beta lift, mirroring traditional equities and gold, while select altcoins benefited from Ripple's institutional partnerships.

Ripple's partnerships with BNY Mellon and Robinhood for custody and settlement of its XRP stablecoin RLUSD signaled a growing institutional interest in the cryptocurrency. This development lifted sentiment for XRP and RLUSD, and also contributed to a 5.56 per cent increase in the Altcoin Season Index. Bitcoin's dominance at 60 per cent suggests a rotation of capital from Bitcoin to select altcoins with clear institutional narratives.

As the Fed policy statement and press conference approach, Bitcoin needs to prove its strength by holding above its 50-day exponential moving average around $81,873. Without this confirmation, the recent gain might be a macro bounce rather than independent strength. Simultaneously, the crypto market faces a technical test with the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at $2.73 trillion acting as near-term support.

If Bitcoin can regain and maintain this level, it could set the stage for a retest of the 50 per cent Fibonacci mark at $2.81 trillion.

For the next session, traders should watch two key indicators: Bitcoin's ability to reclaim and hold above the $81,873 level and the sustained on-chain activity for RLUSD and XRP in response to the Ripple partnerships. If both conditions are met, the market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, benefiting from Bitcoin's macro-led bounce and the potential for sustained altcoin outperformance.