Soybeans rebound on bargain buying, US harvest limits upside

On Wednesday, Chicago soybean prices made their first climb in three days, fueled by bargain buying and an expectation of reduced output in Brazil, although gains were restrained by the ongoing U.S. harvest. Wheat prices also surged as disruptions in the Black Sea region maintained a market floor. Traders noted that the market was somewhat oversold and that investors saw the opportunity in this price dip.

The CBOT's most-traded soybean contract climbed 0.1% to $12.44-1/2 a bushel, after touching its lowest level in three-and-a-half months on Tuesday. Corn and wheat also saw slight increases, with corn rising 0.2% to $4.49-1/2 a bushel and wheat gaining 0.2% to $6.11-1/4 a bushel. The large US harvest supplies put downward pressure on CBOT soybean prices, while the projected lower output in Brazil provided a glimmer of support.

Under a strong El Niño scenario, Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop could shrink to 163.6 million metric tons, compared to 181.2 million tons if weather conditions remain neutral, according to a Serasa Experian study. Corn also felt the heat from the advancing U.S. harvest, which could further swell global stocks and expand export supplies.

As of Sunday, the U.S. soybean harvest was 79% complete, matching trade expectations, and the corn harvest was at 60%, according to the USDA's weekly progress report on Monday. Traders expressed concern that a weaker Brazilian currency would hinder U.S. export demand for grains and soybeans. On Monday, the Brazilian real plummeted against the US dollar following President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's reelection, eroding bullish investor sentiment that had emerged after his right-wing rival led the first round of voting earlier in the month.