Raymond James cuts HF Sinclair stock price target on valuation

Raymond James has reduced its price target for HF Sinclair (NYSE:DINO) stock to $150 from $160, while retaining a Strong Buy rating. The stock is currently trading at $113.62, down 9% over the past week, but has still seen a 154% increase year-to-date. The firm attributes the positive performance to the favorable macro environment in 2022-2023 and the diversification benefits of the company's more defensive businesses in lubes, midstream, and marketing.

Raymond James anticipates continued earnings growth through 2027, driven by improved refinery reliability and solid trends in midstream, marketing, and renewables. The company's financial strength is highlighted by its perfect Piotroski Score of 9, according to InvestingPro analysis. The company's lubes spin-off is expected to unlock more value throughout the portfolio, and the permanent CEO announcement provides greater clarity.

HF Sinclair reported strong third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $11.75 per share, surpassing both Raymond James' estimate of $8.00 and the Street estimate of $7.80. This included benefits from SREs/RINs relief of $2.50 per share and excluded accelerated depreciation from the Mississauga shutdown of $0.23 per share. The firm notes that HF Sinclair shares remain attractive due to the lowest valuation multiples in the refining group, with a P/E ratio of 11.8, which is undervalued relative to its Fair Value estimate. Analysts project EPS of $19.64 for fiscal 2026.