Prediction market bets set the tone for Anthropic's much-awaited IPO

Prediction markets for Anthropic's impending IPO are experiencing a surge in activity, even as retail investors eagerly anticipate the company's official listing. The binary yes or no bets on the company's future performance are shaping how retail investors speculate on high-profile IPOs, allowing traders to wager on elements like closing prices and the venue of the listing without purchasing shares.

Michael Ashley Schulman, a partner at Cerity Partners, likened the interest in Anthropic's IPO to the lines formed outside Apple Stores before the launch of a new iPhone. Earlier this week, Anthropic submitted its IPO filing, which could value the AI lab behind the Claude models at a staggering $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, according to Reuters.

On Polymarket, more than a dozen markets have emerged around the IPO, where traders are placing bets on various aspects such as fundraising amounts, the listing exchange, and the debut valuation. Rival Kalshi is also attracting bets on similar items.