On the Eve of the 2026Q3 Advance GDP Release
GDP growth nowcasted as solid; nowcasted “core GDP” goes gangbusters. Advance release to be discussed by Jim tomorrow… Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow of 10/38 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast of 10/23 (inverted red triangle), EconVitals nowcast of 10/28 (green +), WSJ mean survey (blue line), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR, calculated by iterating […]
On the eve of the 2026Q3 advance GDP release, economists are expressing optimism about the nation's economic growth. The nowcast for overall GDP is projected at a robust 4.7% quarter-over-quarter annualized rate, compared to 4.6% in Q2. This growth is attributed to a surge in final sales to private domestic purchasers, which is nowcasted to rise by 3.3% quarter-over-quarter annualized rate.
Experts like Jason Furman and others have focused on final sales to private domestic purchasers, referred to as "core GDP," as a key indicator of aggregate demand. This measure is nowcasted by the Atlanta Fed to continue its rapid growth trajectory. Equipment investment is also expected to increase significantly, with a projected growth of 20.9%, a stark contrast to the 13.4% growth observed in Q2.
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