Old Dominion’s tonnage turns positive; recovery needs demand inflection

Less-than-truckload carrier Old Dominion Freight Line reported a positive tonnage in September for the first time in over two years. Executives cited favorable market share opportunities and multiyear contracts, while acknowledging a need for a more significant demand inflection to drive upcycle-like results. The company reported third-quarter earnings per share of $1.65, ahead of the market open, which was 4 cents better than estimates and 37 cents higher year-over-year.

Revenue of $1.59 billion increased by 13% year-over-year, excluding fuel surcharges, and was $20 million higher than analysts' expectations. Tonnage per day was flat year-over-year, but a 13% increase in yield drove the topline increase. Yield was up 5% year-over-year, slightly better than management’s guidance. Despite a 2% year-over-year decline in shipments, the 2% increase in weight per shipment offset the tonnage result.

The carrier faces easy prior-year comparisons, with tonnage down 10.7% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025. Old Dominion is carrying over 35% excess door space and noted it should meaningfully take market share as capacity-constrained carriers experience service failures. Revenue per shipment (excluding fuel) increased 7% year-over-year.

The company implemented a 4.9% general rate increase on October 5. Old Dominion’s fourth-quarter revenue is expected to be between $1.54 billion and $1.58 billion, better than the $1.51 billion consensus estimate. The carrier anticipates performing better than normal seasonality, with an expected fourth-quarter operating ratio of 73.5%, implying a 43% incremental margin compared to 50% in the third quarter.