New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ pause signals downside risk against US Dollar – Commerzbank

The New Zealand dollar experienced a sharp decline following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) deciding to skip an interest rate hike during their recent meeting. Although the bank indicated that further rate increases were expected, the market was taken aback by this dovish stance. In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expressed concerns over the potential impact of hot inflation data, leading to a significant narrowing of expectations for an interest rate hike at their upcoming board meeting.

Consequently, the Australian dollar surged 2% against the New Zealand dollar, reaching a high not seen since early 2013. At the same time, the Kiwi slipped by 1.2% against the US dollar. Market expectations had been set for a quarter-point rate increase from the RBNZ, so the decision to maintain the official cash rate at 2.75% led to considerable volatility with short-term swap rates plunging by 10 basis points.

The decision was a tight call, as the committee was divided 4-3 in favor of holding the rate, with Governor Anna Breman repeatedly stressing that future rates hikes would be necessary, though the timing remained uncertain. Analysts suggest that higher interest rates will eventually come if the data continues to support the committee's expectations.

Chief NZ economist at Westpac, Kelly Eckhold, anticipated a 25 basis point increase in December, bringing the rate to 3%, but cautioned that it was not an assured outcome due to the evolving data. Similarly, investors priced in a 75% chance of a rate hike by December and believed rates would reach 3.75% by mid-year. Meanwhile, inflation data in Australia proved more worrisome than anticipated, with core inflation rising 1% in the third quarter, pushing annual inflation to a two-year peak of 3.7%.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock described inflation as "far too high" during a testimony to lawmakers, signaling her support for further tightening. As a result, analysts now predict the RBA will raise rates in November to 4.85%. While further rate hikes remain a risk due to structural forces, they expect these to diminish if there are clearer signs of an economy slowing down, as is expected in the near future.