M-PESA downtime: What happens when money leaves your account but never arrives?

Mobile money transactions in Kenya can have unexpected financial repercussions for small businesses when M-PESA experiences outages. These disruptions can cause sales to fail, suppliers to remain unpaid, deliveries to be delayed, and customers to leave without making purchases. For instance, a customer may have money in their M-PESA wallet but not see it when withdrawing or completing transactions, or find that they cannot pay for transport.

Safaricom, the mobile money service provider, acknowledged system issues on October 28, 2026, which affected M-PESA access and transactions. However, the company did not disclose the number of affected customers, the duration of the problem, or the financial losses directly caused by the outage. M-PESA has become integral to Kenya's commerce, with over 3.13 million businesses using its merchant network in March 2026.

These businesses processed more than Ksh1.2 trillion in transactions over a six-month period. The Central Bank of Kenya's mobile payments statistics highlight the sector's scale, with Ksh761.13 billion in agent cash-in and cash-out transactions in August 2026. A service disruption can lead to sales never occurring, as customers may be unable to complete payments if the transaction fails.

Some may wait for the service to recover, while others might abandon their purchases or seek another merchant that accepts different payment methods. This can impact low-cost goods sellers, who rely on numerous small transactions for their daily revenue. The duration of the disruption, the number of affected customers, and the availability of alternative payment methods all play a role in determining the impact on a business.

Small enterprises often operate with tight cash flow, using recent earnings to purchase stock and meet immediate expenses. A failed payment can lead to delays, forcing the business to postpone supplier payments, reduce stock orders, or draw from personal savings to cover immediate costs. If a disruption occurs during critical deadlines like rent or wages, the financial strain on the business can increase.

Online sellers and businesses relying on M-PESA for orders through WhatsApp, social media, or phone calls face uncertainty when payments cannot be confirmed. The lack of certainty may result in disputes over payment confirmation, order dispatch, and follow-up with the payment provider. Small kiosks and market stalls may be more reliant on M-PESA than larger retailers, which often accept a broader range of payment methods.

When M-PESA is unavailable, these businesses may struggle to accept payments, even when customers are eager to make purchases. While cash can serve as a backup, not every customer carries enough, and not all traders maintain sufficient cash reserves due to their frequent use of digital payments. This creates an operational risk for businesses that heavily depend on a dominant payment channel without alternative options.

The consequences of M-PESA outages extend beyond the business owner, affecting employees, delivery riders, and customers who rely on timely payments for transportation or purchases.