Is the political gender gap widening?

As midterm elections loom, new research reveals a widening political gender gap among young voters. Researchers expected a typical seven-point difference between men and women, but discovered a 17-point chasm among those under 30. Of the 63% of young women voting for Kamala Harris, only 46% of men did the same. Professor Eric R.A.N.

Smith of UC Santa Barbara predicts this trend will continue and potentially intensify in the upcoming November elections. He attributes the shift to President Trump's policies, which tend to alienate women from the Republican party, especially on issues like abortion, social welfare, and economic inequality. Smith and his colleagues found that while opinions on most issues parallel among genders, the gender gap on abortion rights has notably increased since the 2022 Dobbs decision.

Young women, who are most affected by abortion laws, have become more pro-choice, while men's opinions remain relatively unchanged. The researchers also debunk several myths, including the notion that generational experiences significantly influence political views or that people become more conservative with age. They note that tax sentiment tends to peak in middle age.

The widening gender gap may persist, especially if the Republican Party continues to alienate women, potentially leading to a female-led backlash against the Trump administration for at least the next five years.