How do Israeli election results impact timing of possible new Iran war? - analysis

The recent Israeli election results have left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a minority position, making it unlikely for him to avoid new elections without forming an alliance with opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot. These political developments have implications for potential military action against Iran.

Netanyahu was considering renewing the conflict with Iran in recent weeks, but opposition from U.S. President Donald Trump and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir prevented such an attack before elections. Both Trump and Zamir opposed an attack before the U.S. midterm elections in November 2022. Trump has shown interest in resuming strikes on Iran after the midterms, as he mentioned in his endorsement of Netanyahu.

If opposition leader Eisenkot had won the majority and formed a government before the midterms, Netanyahu would likely have refrained from launching a new attack on Iran. However, since Eisenkot did not secure the majority, Yisrael Beytenu party leader Avigdor Liberman, an ally of Eisenkot, will not start negotiations for a government until after the final vote results are in on Friday.

The complex coalition-building process will likely take more than four days, which means Netanyahu could attack Iran if Trump wants him to or is not stopped from doing so. IDF Chief of Staff Zamir supports attacking Iran under two conditions: if Iran was planning to strike Israel or if the U.S. restarted the war first with Trump's approval.

Zamir's instincts have not yet been aligned with a pre-election attack on Iran, as he believes Tehran has not yet returned to its previous threat capabilities. However, once Eisenkot and his team find it harder to negotiate with the Israeli-Arab parties, Israelis might feel more inclined to support a government led by Netanyahu. Additionally, recent missile attacks on Israel could make Israelis more receptive to a government that focuses on the national conversation surrounding Iran.