Geldpolitik: Fed lässt Zinsen unverändert – weniger Zinsentscheidungen ab 2027

The US Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates at a range of 3.75 to 4.0 percent in its most recent meeting. The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced this to the press on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also announced on the press conference that there will only be seven instead of eight interest rate meetings from 2027, at which the central bank decides on interest steps.

This breaks with a decades-long tradition, as eight meetings have been held since 1981. Two of the twelve members of the Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, President of the regional Fed branch in Cleveland, voted for a 0.25 percentage point interest rate increase. At the last interest rate meeting in September, all twelve members of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted for an interest rate increase.

By deciding not to raise the benchmark interest rate, the Fed followed market expectations. Less than ten percent of traders had anticipated a rate hike before the committee meeting. However, expectations are different for the next monetary policy decision on December 9 - the last meeting of the year. About 86 percent of market participants currently expect the Fed to raise interest rates at that time to curb price developments.

Many experts have not expected a rate tightening in the run-up to the upcoming US midterm elections, which are taking place next week. However, the situation is different for the next interest rate meeting. According to Michael Heise, Chief Economist at HQ Trust, a rate increase is expected for December, as two dissenting votes have already been recorded.

He says, "It's not being postponed." Support for this view comes from recent price data: Inflation in the US remained higher at 3.7 percent in September than in the previous month. The Fed aims for an inflation rate of 2 percent. Rising wholesale prices are also largely responsible for the sharp price increases, triggered by higher oil, fuel, and gas prices due to the US and Israel's attack on Iran.

The Fed statement accompanying the decision simply states that "inflation remains elevated." The Fed plans to wait for further data before deciding on interest rates again. The ECB will decide on Thursday. Price pressure could continue to rise if the two countries intensify their attacks on Iran after the US midterm elections next week, according to US media reports.

White House officials are already considering this. The high fuel prices are seen as a decisive reason why US President Donald Trump is particularly unpopular in current polls. Fresh price data will be provided by the PCE index, which the Fed closely watches, on Thursday. Observers expect another increase in that figure as well. The European Central Bank will also hold its interest rate decision for the euro area on Thursday.