Geldanlage: Boom ohne Ende? Altersvorsorgedepot dürfte Nachfrage nach aktiven ETFs treiben

Since summer, European asset manager Pictet has been offering ETFs, despite being known for active portfolio management. These ETFs do not strictly follow an index but rather use a KI-model to seek out promising stocks in order to generate higher returns. Other European players like Allianz Global Investors, Berliner Tech-Investor BIT Capital, and investment manager Alliance Bernstein have also launched similar products this year.

Within the European fund market, active ETFs remain a niche but are growing rapidly: As of August, products managed 119 billion euros – almost double the 63 billion euros a year earlier. The number of products grew from 183 to 345 over the same period, according to an analysis by Scope Fund Analysis and Fondsconsult. The age pension fund could further fuel this growth.

Active ETFs are exchange-traded funds that deliberately deviate from their underlying comparison index. The specifics of how they do this varies from product to product. Compared to traditional active investment funds, they are usually cheaper, can be traded continuously on the stock exchange, and publish their portfolios daily.

Industry experts expect active ETFs to gain more significance with the age pension fund from the beginning of the year, with the state subsidizing investments in the capital market annually up to 540 euros per saver. Every provider must also provide a simple standard deposit, consisting of two funds with a maximum cost of one percent per year.

Industry expects massive inflows. Rating agency S&P forecasts additional net inflows of 26 to 56 billion euros annually after the introduction phase. Scope estimates medium to long-term inflows of 30 to 50 billion euros per year. Fondsconsult surveyed 33 fund managers on the age pension deposit, of which 15 said they would prefer active ETFs for the standard product.

"Many fund managers want to stock the standard deposits with active ETFs," says Jan Richter, analyst at Fondsconsult. "A large part of the inflows into the age pension deposits could therefore go into active ETFs." Fidelity International's Standard Deposit already offers active ETFs, while Union Investment, a genossenschaftliche fund company that had previously avoided ETFs, announced it would stock its standard product with active ETFs.

Hendrik Leber-founded Acatis launched an active age pension deposit ETF in May. Scope analyst Florian Koch sees the age pension deposit as a possible "booster" for active ETFs. Especially providers not belonging to the classic passive ETF houses have the chance to participate in the German market for pension products via active ETFs, the analysis states.

McKinsey partner Niklas Nolzen says: "The age pension deposit could act as a growth driver for active ETFs while at the same time increasing the pressure on traditional active funds." Active ETFs are a new, cost-efficient form of offering active management. The pricing war over the costs of the age pension deposit remains unclear, says Richter.

Especially particularly cheap standard solutions are likely to initially dominate passive ETFs. In recent weeks, a pricing war over the age pension deposit fees has developed. Active equity ETFs currently have an annual cost ratio of 0.42 percent, according to Scope analysis, while bond ETFs have 0.27 percent. Active ETFs are therefore cheaper than many traditional investment funds but generally more expensive than passive ETFs.

Large passive equity ETFs have an average annual cost of about 0.14 percent on the ExtraETF platform. JP Morgan Asset Management, the leader in active ETFs in Europe, sees opportunities in the age pension deposit. "Just because of the fee ceiling, ETFs will play a central role in the age pension deposit," Travis Spence, head of ETF business at JP Morgan Asset Management, told the Handelsblatt recently.

The fund manager wants to offer a portfolio of active ETFs to the age pension deposit together with fintech unit Unitplus. Fidelity International's ETF sales chief for Europe, Stefan Kuhn, expects most of the new inflows to the market to come in the form of passive stock funds initially. Active ETFs, however, are expected to grow above average starting from a comparatively low level.

The Scope figures on market volume correspond roughly to current data from the analysis house Morningstar for European active ETFs: Active ETFs still make up a small slice of the overall market in Europe, unlike the United States. Three percent of the invested wealth in European stock funds was in active ETFs by the end of September, according to Morningstar data.

"Measured against the total market, the volume remains small," Scope analyst Koch says. Active ETFs have shown a tremendous growth rate, though, and many funds have now reached the important level of 100 million euros. The market correction? How strong the funds' deviation from the market weights of a stock index and thus from comparable passive ETFs is, varies.

Index-tracking strategies remain popular, according to the analysis. JP Morgan Asset Management expects ETFs to play a central role in the age pension deposit due to the fee ceiling.